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Climate Friday | Average temperatures in the fall are rising

In the last decade, the average October temperature in Toledo has risen 2.3 degrees.

TOLEDO, Ohio — This week started off with a taste of summer and ended feeling like fall. 

These October ups and downs have left us near normal in the temperature department this month. Despite the roller coaster of temperatures, rainfall has remained below average this month. 

So how is October weather changing and what role does climate change play? We'll answer those questions in this week's edition of Climate Friday.

Watch previous editions of Climate Friday on our YouTube playlist

On average, October weather is getting warmer. In the last decade, the average October temperature in Toledo has risen 2.3 degrees. We've felt this warming trend in recent days with a summer-like stretch featuring five consecutive days in the 70s. 

Last Friday kicked off the mild weather with a high temperature of 74. The following four days bounced back and forth between 78 and 79. Overall, this month has featured a total of 12 days in the 70s. 

Credit: WTOL 11

Despite the recent stretch of mild weather, this month has dosed out its fair share of cooler days. When all is said and done, we'll likely end up near the October average high of 65. 

Overall, the fall season is getting warmer. September has also warmed up 2.3 degrees in the last decade. November and December have risen 1.4 and 3.1 degrees, respectively. 

After a brief cooldown, warm weather will return in early November as high temperatures soar into the 70s.

What about October rainfall? As a whole, the fall months are growing drier. This month exemplifies this drying trend with a paltry rainfall total of 0.56 inches. 

This October reflects a striking contrast from last year, which brought a whopping 7.43 inches of rain. Last October's rainy pattern made the fall harvest very difficult for area farmers. 

Overall, October is growing drier, but only marginally. October rainfall has dropped by a mere hundredth of an inch in the past decade. November and December, however have declined in rainfall by 0.21" and 0.24", respectively.

While falls have been growing drier in recent decades, springs have been getting wetter. As a whole, annual precipitation in Toledo has risen by 0.77" in the last ten years.

So will this mild and dry trend continue into November? After a brief cooldown that will send temperatures falling to the 50s and 60s through Halloween, milder conditions will return into early November. A ridge in the jet stream will help temperatures skyrocket to the 70s late in the week. 

Credit: WTOL 11

The first weekend of November may feature milder conditions with afternoon highs near 70. 

Stay tuned to the WTOL 11 Weather team for the latest 10-day forecast and subscribe for next week's Climate Friday Newsletter.


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