While the initial coronavirus projections in Ohio showed a peak of 10,000 new daily cases, it appears some significant progress has been made.
On Wednesday, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton shared a new projection of the state's coronavirus curve, which now projects a peak of 1,600 new daily cases late this month. Acton attributed Ohio's improved outlook to the effects of physical distancing that are now being more accurately factored into the modeling.
"We knew all along that if we did nothing, we would have predicted 62,000 cases per day at the peak. And of course we would have peaked long ago," Acton said. "Our latest projection is 1,600 cases per day. Still a lot of cases per day, still a load on our hospitals, but this is the effect you've done. In Ohio we took our projection and you have squashed [the curve] and you have stretched it. Honestly, this is you, this is what you have done. This is how you have saved lives."
While Ohio's outlook is improved, Acton stressed the need for Ohioans to continue to practice social distancing and other preventative measures. While the modeling shows Ohio has drastically benefitted from early mitigation, Acton said that the battle is ongoing.
"If we stopped today, if we all ran outside, in two more weeks we would have gone way back up again," Acton said. "We've got to hold steady and hold the course."
As of Wednesday, Ohio has had 5,148 confirmed coronavirus cases, 1,485 of which have resulted in hospitalization, 472 ICU admissions and 193 deaths. Dating back to the discovery of the state's first positive coronavirus case on March 9, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has taken several measures to encourage physical distancing, including a stay-at-home order that is currently in place until at least May 1.