Depending where you live, this has either been a very wet or a dry May so far. In Toledo this has been the second wettest start to May in history. Elsewhere it has been more hit and miss. But exactly where that rain falls has a big impact on nutrient runoff into Lake Erie.
When you slice the Maumee River watershed out of the landscape you’ll see the northern half has been soaked with 2-4” of rain in the past week. The southern half has been much dry. This means while there is a large amount of runoff, it isn’t as severe as it could be. Keeping in mind that the Auglaize and St. Mary’s branches of the Maumee watershed are high use agricultural lands.
The latest bloom forecast from NOAA for later this summer is still calling for a significant bloom this summer. Rains the rest of this month and June will still play a big role in how bad it could be. We will be watching closely.
You can read the bloom forecast for yourself here: https://bit.ly/2L08TGu