At the beginning of every year, Wall Street experts predict what the financial world will look like at the end of the year.
But is Wall Street really any smarter than everyday “Main Street” people?
Last January, Goldman Sachs predicted the stock market would basically go nowhere in 2017 by moving up about only 2 percent. Main Street was a little more optimistic in saying it would go up 10 percent.
What actually happened in 2017? As of late December, depending on how you measure it, the market was up an astounding 20 percent.
Who was smarter? Main Street.
Next topic: Oil. The Energy Information Administration said that in 2017, the price of a barrel of oil should average around $50. As for what people on Main Street, they believed the price would go up to $60 barrel.
As of late December, the average oil price for 2017 was about $50 a barrel. This one goes to the experts.
Real Estate research firm CoreLogic said home values would increase by 5 percent in 2017. Main Street was less optimistic and predicted that the housing market would remain relatively unchanged due to pending increase in interest rates.
According to Corelogic, as of third quarter 2017, average home prices nationwide were up 6.2 percent year over year. So here the experts were closer, meaning they
As a result, it appears that the pros may be have won since they were correct in two out of three categories, but it wasn’t a landslide victory.
This shouldn’t be surprising. The folks at Wall Street are labeled experts for a reason, but truth be told they aren't much more of experts than anyone else.
But so much for last year. What about this year’s predictions for oil, housing and stocks for 2018.