Upcoming winter weather outlook

Upcoming winter weather outlook

Thanksgiving is upon us, and it's that time of year that we turn to the winter weather outlook.

The weather so far this year has been quite interesting. So what has it shown us so far?

The summer was a mixed bag of cool at the beginning and mild near the end. The most-asked question of meteorologists is if summer or autumn temperatures can predict what the winter will be like.

The answer is no.

There are daily weather records that go back to nearly the Civil War in Toledo, with no direct connection between the seasons.

However, wet weather is likely to continue. This has been one of the wettest years on record for the Glass City.

Looking at a global setting, signs point to his pattern continuing.

This winter outlook will focus on a more active jet stream, meaning more storm systems may sweep their way into the Great Lakes.

The key will be position of the jet stream that will determine if the storms consist of snow, ice or cold rain.

Recent winters have been largely controlled by atmospheric blocking patterns. Many months over the past several winters have brought both record cold and warm temperatures.

This winter will favor similar, more persistent weather patterns and possibly more extremes due to La Nina.

High pressure systems locking and buckling the jet stream in the north Atlantic and north Pacific will determine how active, stormy or cold our winter is.

Though it may be a wet winter, longer periods of mild weather are possible. The First Alert Weather team can often predict this weather weeks in advance looking at local jet stream and clues around the world.

Snowfall is inevitable this season, with Defender ready to track it when it arrives. We have yet to see any snow in Toledo yet, but snow in other parts of the globe is already playing a role in our winter forecasts.

Snow coverage during October and November is Siberia can be a sign of our winter season being warmer or colder than average. This year's snow pack in that area is already significantly above normal, which could be sings for shots of colder air ahead for our area this winter.

The official outlook is that there are indicators that this winter will be wetter than normal, giving us a more rain/snow mixture-type of storms.

For how much snow we will get, we'll have to wait and see.

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